PARADIGUM SHIFT

The year 2013 would be seeing cut in RBI rate, which will be reflected in Bank Deposit Interest rates (including other fixed interest products) getting reduced by 1% - 1.50%. This phenomenon as always makes Debt Fund quite attractive as their portfolio yields are inversely proportion to interest rate. Whatever rates you get from the bank – the same rates ARE delivered by these Funds as TAX FREE FOR YOU (without any equity participation). Almost 15 years of track record spells this.

Inflation would be more or less within manageable range of 6.00% to 8.00%. Fiscal deficit should be less than 5.40% of GDP if not equivalent to 5.10% of last year. Going forward various policy reforms announced (and some more to be announced) should beer fruits in reducing fiscal deficit in FIN YR.2013-14 and improving GDP performances.

The entire impact should make equity market friendly, however volatility is not ruled out. We only hope that Indian retail investor should not repeat their 2012 behaviour – where- by on one hand we saw Foreign Institutional Investors pumping money to tune of 1.35  Lakh core into Indian equity market however Indian retail investor participation stood in red with 25K crore. We are repeatedly maintaining, to participate in this market at every lows OR through SIP’s and don’t liquidate positions before seeing nifty at 6400. May be by that level opinion get changed altogether.

Fiscal adjustment in US, ramification of Euro zone crisis and China‘s slowing rate of sustainable growth is a factor that is likely to curb global growth in 2013. Having said that the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund project developed economies as a whole to have achieved GDP growth of only 1.3% in 2012, with growth expected at 1.5% in 2013. In contrast, emerging Asia is expected to post an estimated GDP growth of 6.1% in 2012 and 6.8% in 2013.

What all happens in U.S., Euro zone, and Japan this year will almost impact the global economy at large, but the ebb and flow of action and reaction is shifting. Emerging markets, for instance, are generally lessening their trade dependence on the U.S. and Europe, and there are other countries that can drive global growth. In addition, a likely continuation of easy monetary policies in the developed markets this year could result in more investment dollars into global equity markets including emerging markets.

A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

Smile because your assets are set to appreciate going forward.

Be it Equities, Debt, Bond or Gold, these asset class are set to see new height for their own different intrinsic reasons. This is rare phenomenon– Pl. doesn’t miss it. – The only criterion to select Asset Class is the period for which you want to invest, or remain invested.

For God sake at-least don’t liquidate your holdings, as it will over all improve it valuations in months to come. You can however reposition your holdings in to better performing Funds/Asset class of your liking.

The long term investor should participate in equities (preferably through Mutual Funds) with every fall in index (Though there may not be many) or even at current levels further and or should start thinking to spice up SIP (Systematic Investment Plan).

How-ever, those who are already exposed to equities or don’t have time horizon in their favor, could at-least, capitalize the current opportunity by planing all/possible Tax Savings under sec 80 C into MF Tax Savings schemes instead of other options available, also defined at www.i2isolutions.org/tax_savings.htm

Those who love making Fixed Deposit with Bank, but are in highest Tax slab, it is high time to diversify a bit by having exposure into debt Funds (which has nothing to do with stock market as there is no exposure to equity market in the portfolio) it will at least deliver minimum 30% (on the lowest side) more Tax free returns than good old Bank FD’s.

Gold, after consolidation at current level is looking set to surge in north direction – It’s advisable to diversify your portfolio by having some exposure into Gold Fund which when required can be instantly liquidated delivering the appreciation of Gold in holding period.

Happy Investing

Can we say Stock Market is on Song

Market movement’s check-mates one and all. When we think market will go down, it goes up and vice-versa. If only we stick to basics i.e. Objective based Investment – we will never go wrong. There are ample of investment avenues defined on risk reward scale which will take care of your investment depending upon investment horizon (which should be predefined by investor).  

Stock indices since December 2011 till date have moved from one trading zone to another. And as we maintain the under current is bullish and we would be seeing market surging from current trading zone of NIFTY – 5600 – 5900 to moving into new zone of 5900 – 6400 within 2013 quite comfortably.

Political dimensions are favorable with FDI going through and virtually opening the path for other major policy initiatives. Cautious trading is suggested with long term objective. SIP’s as well as Participation with every fall will be icing on the cake

For investor seeking risk free reward (Zero % equity Participation), nothing will stop them to achieve same with Tax –Free returns around 8.50% for many years to come.

We are sorry; Banks returns will be falling going forward. It’s high time to move into Debt class with same safety &security but better returns pretax as well as post-tax.

Busy Season Credit Policy

Busy Season Credit Policy is out and RBI keeps key policy rates unchanged. Cuts, CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

RBI actions are on expected lines considering rise in inflationary pressure due to increase in diesel prices.

Market, had already discounted this possibility as a result was trading in narrow range of 18600 to 18800 levels. However, retail investors reactions are more eminent with policy announcements which as a result has plunged Sensex around 1.50%

Going forward, market may also en-cash this opportunity for corrections, which may happen in intraday today itself. Having said that BSE has strong support at 18440 & NSE at 5600 levels.  FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) are overweight on NSE-50 Stocks –so as Large Caps are flavor of the moment.

We are strongly recommending to en-cash current opportunities by participating in same, and there-after if opportunity multiplies.

Fresh participation in Debt market is also benefited with the postponement of interest cut, leading to comfortable 9% annualized TAX FREE – RISK FREE returns. 

Season Greetings

Right time to enter market:

Strong message has been sent from Govt. last month. Same is time and again getting clearer and louder. Markets have moved to new trading zone. However market swing to tune of 3%-5% downward is never ruled out due to unprecedented event or knee jerk reactions to negative news. Undertone is bullish and Long term investor should buy with each fall.  

Low trades were seen in last couple of weeks, due to inaction from BULLs so as BEARs who are weighing each other next move visa- Vis market sentiments. In market parlance, its termed as consolidation before new trend sets in. The upcoming RBI Busy season credit Policy is expected to initiate rate cut directly or at-least indirectly to fuel growth.

However, for those who don’t want to take any risk, there is always risk free avenue (Debt Funds) since opening of economy in 1991-92 -A solid alternative to Bank Deposit yielding Tax Free returns of 8% plus with 100% transparency and liquidity option.

The Government’s FIRST STEP IN RIGHT DIRECTION enough cause for optimism

The Government seems to be pushed to the walls as they have restarted some economic reforms once more, come what may be. We are convinced this is the dawn of a new age of reforms in India, potentially as momentous as the ones in 1991. However still many amongst us reacts decidedly ho-hum, and who think that the government has done little and quite late and will actually be able to operationalise little of what it has announced.

There’s some truth in both views and from here on. The government measures announced so far will only take care of 25 to 35 per cent of the diesel losses. The other announcements, if and when followed up by actual changes in laws and regulations, might will entice some foreigners to invest.

Everything else, like the softer attitude on retrospective taxation and GAAR are some time from fruition. And the less said about myriad issues from infrastructure to inflation the better. The investment markets are operating on hope or softer interest regime & retrospective higher bottom-line for India inc., along with the news from the US and Europe that their currency would be depreciating going forward for long time to come.

All of which still means that the outlook is still much better than it appeared to be a week or two back. Investors are eternal optimists, and a promise of some real reforms, some chance of actual implementation, plus some hope of liquidity—that adds up to cause for a great deal of optimists.

Awakening of Stock Exchange on back of goodies:

·         Govt. Bold Policy Measures

·         Ex-gratia of Stimulus announce by Federal

·         Expected low interest regime going forward

·         Bear Panicky – Short covering

·         Setting of Bullish under-tone

All these doesn’t means market will not look backward – reasons

1.       Once bear Short Covering is over – collectively they will try to pull back again & with them so called Bull would be accompanying resulting – CORRECTION – to the extent 17500 BSE / 5300 NIFTY is not ruled out going forward before real bullish undertone sets in say by couple of months time frame if other parameter remains constant.

2.       Euro zone crisis handling not on expected lines or slowdown of US recovery – i.e. if sustain +ve wibes are not pouring in, Indian Market can’t march only on its own credential in isolation.

3.       Govt. rolling back policy measures on account of Ally / Opposition pressure.

Our Submissions:

·         Initiate SIP as much as possible as it has proven track record in all adverse scenario with Long Term objective.

·         Wait for correction we have not missed the Bus. Having said that buy with each fall.

·         Short Term Income Fund has and should continue delivering 8.50% Tax Free returns whether interest rate cut is immediate or if postponed to adjust inflationary pressure by increase in diesel prices.