Season Greetings.
Worst seems to be behind us. Unwinding
of leverage position of HNI led to sell off in the market. NBFC borrowing short
& lending long in the falling interest rate scenario had favorable position
though with the hardening of the interest rate played spoilsport. To add its
hue & cry crude kept inching up.
Crude looks like settling
somewhere near its current level. Further, the possibility of further increase
of quarter % of basic interest rates can’t be ruled out. Weakening of the
currency which is bound to happen over a period of time was allowed to balance
itself which in way supported market in huge way.
Weakening of currency has also
helped many segments in a way. Exports data YOY basis is on upsurge parallel to
the corporate earnings which will be getting announced by November.
Markets are priced relatively better
with a fall of market around 20% broadly and weakening of rupee around 7%
(virtually with an impact of 27%.
Liquidity is not a concern as it used
to be the case with previous falls. Going forward Crude and interest rate would
only be factor to be closely looked upon.
Macro parameter currently is in
best of it shape with lower fiscal deficit & Current account deficit around
2%.
Equities certainly to be looked
upon for long term in a way of SIP and debt fund is having great opportunities
for returns of more than traditional bank long term rates as these Debt Funds has advantage of better post tax returns with indexation benefits for holding period of 3 years or more.
